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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."